Trend Analysis

In: Business and Management

Submitted By soup92
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National Income Trend Since 1950's

Domestic factors which lead to changes in Growth of Indian economy were as follows:

* Share of agricultural output in the GDP reduced * Industrial Sector (Manufacturing Sector) increased due to industrialization in 1970's * Service sector in India saw a sharp increase from 1950-2012. The dominant shift in growth of the economy is accountable to service sector * Trade and tax liberalisation reforms were made in India in 1980 * Since modern services like information and financial services are easily tradable than manufactured goods, they are growing faster than traditional services like tourism, media, education, etc * Also, the services sectors have negligible transportation costs
Inflexion Point Analysis:
Analysing the trend since 1990, the inflexion points as per the graph below which depicts the NNP growth rate of the economy :

1997-98 * The growth slowed down because of the Asian crisis. During this period the fiscal deficit increased. Also the 5th pay commission was announced. * Contribution of Industrial and manufacturing sector towards growth rate reduced * Agricultural sector previously was low but it increased a bit in 1997 * However, the Service sector witnessed a regular increase in the growth patterns
1998-99
* GDP growth reached 5.8 percent. This is mainly due to high agricultural growth of 5.8 percent. It increased to 5.3 percent in1998-99. * Also the other major reason is due to increase in the GDP of trade sector which was estimated on the basis of volume of goods. * Contribution from Industrial sector reduced from 1995,reached its all time low in 1999 and started increasing again * Also, the contribution from Manufacturing sector reached to an all time low in 1999 and started to increase again thereafter * Again in this period, the Service…...

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