Population Bomb

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Submitted By annemazingg
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The New Population Bomb
The Four Megatrends That Will Change the World
The UN Population Division projects that global population will nearly halt by 2050. By that time, the world’s population will have stabilized at 9.15B people. Global income will increase far more than population over the next four decades. Four historic shifts will fundamentally alter the world’s population over the next four decades: the relative demographic weight of the worlds developed countries will drop by nearly 25 percent, shifting economic power to the developing nations; the developed countries labor forces will substantially age and decline, constraining economic growth in the developed world and raising the demand for immigrant workers; most of the worlds expected population growth will increasingly be concentrated in today’s poorest and youngest countries; and for the first time in history, most of the worlds population will become urbanized.
The West is experiencing a drastic decline in population growth, and its relative decline is even more dramatic if one also considers changes in income. The proportion of global GDP produced by Europe, the US and Canada fell from 68% in 1950 to 47% in 2003. This will decline even more steeply in the future, and in 2050, the global GDP produced by these countries will be <30%. This means that, the world’s GDP growth between 2003 and 2050 will occur outside Europe, the US and Canada. From now on, therefore, the main driver of global economic expansion will be the economic growth of newly-industrialized countries, such as Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Turkey and Mexico.
Part of the reason developed countries will be less economically dynamic in the coming decades is that their populations will become substantially older. Over the next decades, therefore, the countries will have increasingly large proportions of retirees and…...

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