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Words 736

Pages 3

1. Simulation for the repair time.

It is given that the repair time follows

Repair Time (days) Probability

1 .20

2 .45

3 .25

4 .10

-----

1.00

To generate a random number from the above distribution, we use the following procedure.

Generate a random number denoted by r2 from between 0 and 1. If this generated random number is less than or equal to 0.2 take repair time = 1. If the generated random number is 0.2 to 0.65, we take repair time =2. If the generated random number is 0.65 to 0.90, we take repair time = 3 and take 4 otherwise.

2. Simulation for break-down Distribution

Given that the probability distributions of random variable X representing the time between break-downs varies from 0 to 6 weeks with probability increasing continuously, the copier went without breaking down can be approximated by the probability distribution f(x) =x/18 0 < x < 6

Hence the distribution function of x is F(x)=x2/36 0 < x < 6

If r1 is another random number generated between 0 and 1, then we can write r1= x2/36

Hence x=6

Therefore to simulate from the break down distribution, generate a random number r1 between 0 and 1 and make the transformation, x=6 .

3. Simulation for Lost Revenue.

It is given that the number of copies sold per day follows a uniform probability distribution between 2,000 and 8,000 copies. The revenue loss random number per day can be obtained by generating a uniform random number r3 between 2000 and 8000. To get the lost business due to this break down is obtained by multiplying r3 by repair time and lost revenue is obtained by multiplying r3* repair time*0.1.

4. Total time

We manually simulate the above problem by…...

...JET Copies Case Problem LaTonya Crutcher Dr. Emeka Dunu, MAT 540 6/3/13 In the JET Copies Case Problem the probability function of time between repairs is the one of the issues and the other is the loss of revenue if they do not purchase the new copier. We were asked to generate a random value for computation of times between breakdowns. Using these random numbers and the linear formula SQRT(R1)*6, which represents the slope and probability function for breakdown intervals, we were able to compute the interval between breakdowns. The amount of days in repair was one of the issues James, Ernie and Terry needed information. For each day the printer is down is equal to lost revenues and profits for their business. Using a probability look up chart based on assigned probabilities enabled us to randomly simulate the amount of time the printer would have been down or idle and losing print time. This is also another area that a broader random simulation may have helped us end at a more accurate and acceptable outcome. These values were cumulated and the total number of days in repair was calculated. A third set of random numbers were generated to use in our formula y=((6*R3)+2)*100 to calculate a dollar amount of lost revenues per day. These values were summed to get the number of annual lost revenues so that a decision could be made about purchasing a new copier. By formulating the range of random numbers to asses if there is a great need to purchase another......

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...JET Copies: The Decision to Purchase a Backup Copier Businesses are continually faced with difficult and challenging decisions, especially those regarding revenue and whether or not to spend money on situations that may or may not occur, based on speculation or perception. There may be several techniques a business can employ to analyze if perceived investments will produce a desired return and subsequently, profit. Simulation is an analytical process that supports business planning objectives. By utilizing models to support this process, business leaders and managers can forecast potential expenditures and better prepare for roadblocks that can serve as organizational disadvantages. JET Copies is a company facing a dilemma of whether or not it would be cost effective to purchase a second copier in case repair times concerning the original one would result in a loss of revenue. To further analyze their case, I will model the number of days to repair the original copier, the number of weeks between breakdowns, and lost revenue due to breakdowns for a period of 1 year. Additionally, by combining all the modeling components, I will provide a detailed summary to support their decision of whether to invest in the additional copier, and do so with a high level of confidence. I will begin by modeling the number of days to repair. To begin the simulation technique chosen for this case, I first utilized the information communicated by Terri speculating that it will take...

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... Question 1 2 out of 2 points | | | Probabilistic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters. Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | False | Correct Answer: | False | | | | | Question 2 2 out of 2 points | | | Fixed cost is the difference between total cost and total variable cost. Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | True | Correct Answer: | True | | | | | Question 3 2 out of 2 points | | | In general, an increase in price increases the break even point if all costs are held constant. Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | False | Correct Answer: | False | | | | | Question 4 2 out of 2 points | | | Parameters are known, constant values that are usually coefficients of variables in equations.Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | True | Correct Answer: | True | | | | | Question 5 2 out of 2 points | | | P(A | B) is the probability of event A, if we already know that event B has occurred. Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | True | Correct Answer: | True | | | | | Question 6 2 out of 2 points | | | If events A and B are independent, then P(A|B) = P(B|A). Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | False | Correct Answer: | False | | | | | Question 7 2 out of 2 points | | | A binomial probability distribution indicates the probability of r successes in n trials. Answer | | | | ...

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...Question 1 2 out of 2 points Fixed cost is the difference between total cost and total variable cost. Answer Selected Answer: True Correct Answer: True Question 2 2 out of 2 points Parameters are known, constant values that are usually coefficients of variables in equations. Answer Selected Answer: True Correct Answer: True Question 3 2 out of 2 points In general, an increase in price increases the break even point if all costs are held constant. Answer Selected Answer: False Correct Answer: False Question 4 2 out of 2 points Probabilistic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters. Answer Selected Answer: False Correct Answer: False Question 5 0 out of 2 points If events A and B are independent, then P(A|B) = P(B|A). Answer Selected Answer: True Correct Answer: False Question 6 2 out of 2 points P(A | B) is the probability of event A, if we already know that event B has occurred. Answer Selected Answer: True Correct Answer: True Question 7 2 out of 2 points A binomial probability distribution indicates the probability of r successes in n trials. Answer Selected Answer: True Correct Answer: True Question 8 2 out of 2 points EKA manufacturing company produces Part # 2206 for the aerospace industry. Each unit of part # 2206 is...

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...1 Assignment #1: JET Copies Case Problem Read the ³JET Copies´ Case Problem on pages 678-679 of the text. Using simulation estimate the loss of revenue due to copier breakdown for one year, as follows: 1. In Excel, use a suitable method for generating the number of days needed to repair the copier, when it is out of service, according to the discrete distribution shown. 2. In Excel, use a suitable method for simulating the interval between successive breakdowns, according to the continuous distribution shown. 3. In Excel, use a suitable method for simulating the lost revenue for each day the copier is out of service. 4. Put all of this together to simulate the lost revenue due to copier breakdowns over 1 year to answer the question asked in the case study. 5. In a word processing program, write a brief description/explanation of how you implemented each component of the model. Write 1-2 paragraphs for each component of the model (days-to-repair; interval between breakdowns; lost revenue; putting it together). 6. Answer the question posed in the case study. How confident are you that this answer is a good one? What are the limits of the study? Write at least one paragraph. There are two deliverables for this Case Problem, the Excel spreadsheet and the written description/explanation. ASSIGNMENT 1 1. Days-to-repair: If you assume that the number of days needed to repair a copier is random, you can generate a random number denoted r2 between 0 and 1: 2 0 < random...

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...model is a functional relationship that includes: Answer Selected Answer: all of the above Correct Answer: all of the above • Question 11 2 out of 2 points A university is planning a seminar. It costs $3000 to reserve a room, hire an instructor, and bring in the equipment. Assume it costs $25 per student for the administrators to provide the course materials. If we know that 20 people will attend, what price should be charged per person to break even? Answer Selected Answer: 175 Correct Answer: 175 • Question 12 2 out of 2 points The area under the normal curve represents probability, and the total area under the curve sums to Answer Selected Answer: 1 Correct Answer: 1 • Question 13 2 out of 2 points The expected value of the standard normal distribution is equal to Answer Selected Answer: 0 Correct Answer: 0 • Question 14 2 out of 2 points In a binomial distribution, for each of n trials, the event Answer Selected Answer: always has the same probability of occurring Correct Answer: always has the same probability of occurring • Question 15 2 out of 2 points Administrators at a university are planning to offer a summer seminar. The costs of reserving a room, hiring an instructor, and bringing in the equipment amount to $3000. Suppose that it costs $25 per student for the administrators to provide the......

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...MAT 540 Complete Course MAT540 Complete Course Click Link for the Answer: http://workbank247.com/q/mat-540-complete-course-mat540-complete-course/22085 http://workbank247.com/q/mat-540-complete-course-mat540-complete-course/22085 MAT 540 Week 1 Discussion "Class Introductions" Please respond to the following: * Please introduce yourself, including your educational and career goals, as well as some personal information about yourself. In your introduction, please draw from your own experience (or use a search engine) to give an example of how probability is used in your chosen profession. If you get your information from an online or other resource, be sure to cite the source of the information. MAT 540 Week 1 Homework Chapter 1 1. The Retread Tire Company recaps tires. The fixed annual cost of the recapping operation is $65,000. The variable cost of recapping a tire is $7.5. The company charges$25 to recap a tire. a. For an annual volume of 15, 000 tire, determine the total cost, total revenue, and profit. b. Determine the annual break-even volume for the Retread Tire Company operation. 2. Evergreen Fertilizer Company produces fertilizer. The company’s fixed monthly cost is $25,000, and its variable cost per pound of fertilizer is $0.20. Evergreen sells the fertilizer for $0.45 per pound. Determine the monthly break-even volume for the company. 3. If Evergreen Fertilizer Company in problem 2 changes the price of its fertilizer from $0.45 per pound to $0.55 per pound,......

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...MAT-540 WeeK 8 Assignment 1 http://homeworklance.com/downloads/mat-540-week-8-assignment-1/ You are to solve Problem 30 in Chapter 4 on page 158 of your textbook. It’s about publishing three weekly magazines. You can use QM for Windows to perform a sensitivity analysis for Objective function coefficients and the RHS values of the constraints. Be sure give the shadow price/dual values for an extra hr of production time or an extra lb of paper. Be sure to follow instructions written for Assignment 1, Linear Programming Case Study. Assignment 1. Linear Programming Case Study Your instructor will assign a linear programming project for this assignment according to the following specifications. It will be a problem with at least three (3) constraints and at least two (2) decision variables. The problem will be bounded and feasible. It will also have a single optimum solution (in other words, it won’t have alternate optimal solutions). The problem will also include a component that involves sensitivity analysis and the use of the shadow price. You will be turning in two (2) deliverables, a short writeup of the project and the spreadsheet showing your work. Writeup. Your writeup should introduce your solution to the project by describing the problem. Correctly identify what type of problem this is. For example, you should note if the problem is a maximization or minimization problem, as well as identify the resources that constrain the solution. Identify each variable......

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...MAT-540 WeeK 8 Assignment 1 http://homeworklance.com/downloads/mat-540-week-8-assignment-1/ You are to solve Problem 30 in Chapter 4 on page 158 of your textbook. It’s about publishing three weekly magazines. You can use QM for Windows to perform a sensitivity analysis for Objective function coefficients and the RHS values of the constraints. Be sure give the shadow price/dual values for an extra hr of production time or an extra lb of paper. Be sure to follow instructions written for Assignment 1, Linear Programming Case Study. Assignment 1. Linear Programming Case Study Your instructor will assign a linear programming project for this assignment according to the following specifications. It will be a problem with at least three (3) constraints and at least two (2) decision variables. The problem will be bounded and feasible. It will also have a single optimum solution (in other words, it won’t have alternate optimal solutions). The problem will also include a component that involves sensitivity analysis and the use of the shadow price. You will be turning in two (2) deliverables, a short writeup of the project and the spreadsheet showing your work. Writeup. Your writeup should introduce your solution to the project by describing the problem. Correctly identify what type of problem this is. For example, you should note if the problem is a maximization or minimization problem, as well as identify the resources that constrain the solution. Identify each variable......

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...MAT-540 WeeK 8 Assignment 1 Follow Below Link to Download Tutorial http://homeworklance.com/downloads/mat-540-week-8-assignment-1/ For More Information Visit Our Website ( http://homeworklance.com/ ) Email us At: Support@homeworklance.com or lancehomework@gmail.com You are to solve Problem 30 in Chapter 4 on page 158 of your textbook. It’s about publishing three weekly magazines. You can use QM for Windows to perform a sensitivity analysis for Objective function coefficients and the RHS values of the constraints. Be sure give the shadow price/dual values for an extra hr of production time or an extra lb of paper. Be sure to follow instructions written for Assignment 1, Linear Programming Case Study. Assignment 1. Linear Programming Case Study Your instructor will assign a linear programming project for this assignment according to the following specifications. It will be a problem with at least three (3) constraints and at least two (2) decision variables. The problem will be bounded and feasible. It will also have a single optimum solution (in other words, it won’t have alternate optimal solutions). The problem will also include a component that involves sensitivity analysis and the use of the shadow price. You will be turning in two (2) deliverables, a short writeup of the project and the spreadsheet showing your work. Writeup. Your writeup should introduce your solution to the project by describing the problem. Correctly identify what type of......

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...Judge’s Score Sheet & Guidelines Chili will be judged according to 5 criteria. Chili will be rated on a scale of zero to 10 for each of the 5 categories; 1. Color – Chili should look appetizing, reddish brown is generally accepted as good. 2. Aroma – Chili should smell good. This also indicates what’s in store when you taste it. 3. Consistency – Chili must have a good ratio between sauce and meat. It should not be dry, watery, grainy, lumpy, or greasy. 4. Taste – Taste, above all else, taste is the most important factor. The taste should consist of a combination of meat, spices, etc. with no particular ingredient being dominant. 5. After-taste – The aftertaste or bite is the heat created by the various types of spices and or peppers. Judge each Chili on it’s on merit; do not compare one chili to another. Use a clean, new spoon for each chili Clear your palate between each chili. Use water or saltines. Place your score on the sheet blank that corresponds to the chili being judged. Do not talk to other judges or compare notes. If you have any food allergies, please ensure a Deja Brew employee is made aware of it before judging begins. [pic] Deja Brew Chili Cook-off Official Score Sheet Chili # ______________________ Date_____________ Please rate this chili on a scale of zero (low) to 10 (high), using only whole numbers, against the 5 category descriptions above; ______ Color ______ Aroma ______ ......

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... Quantitative Methods -MAT 540 JET Copies Case Problem Assignment #1 Days-to-repair Terri was able to gather data from the college which allowed them to develop a table for the probability distribution of the wait for repair services on JET’s copier. To model the probability of wait times in the JET Copies simulation, the JET partners generated a random number representing the probability of an occurrence of a breakdown. They then programmed a VLOOKUP function to match this breakdown probability to the corresponding “Repair Time in Days” column of the table. The result is the simulated time to get repair service for each breakdown occurrence. Interval between breakdowns The James, Ernie, and Terri purchased a copier just like the one used at their college office. When Ernie talked with someone in the dean’s office at State, he was told that the University’s copier broke down frequently often for 1 to 4 days. The partners became worried that their machine would also frequently break down. Although they could not get an exact probability distribution, James was able to determine that breakdowns occurred between 0 and 6 weeks apart. The probability of a breakdown increased as time passed. To model the time between breakdowns in their simulation, JET created a list of random numbers. Next, they applied the probability function f(x) = 2x/a2 0≤ x ≤ a. For this situation, the formula used is x = a √r. Since James estimated breakdowns occur zero to six......

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...Jet Copies Shaneka Thompson Assignment 1 Math 540 Case Problem Finding the average days of repair in the simulation, first you click on the module at the top and scroll to simulation. Click simulation and open new file. There was a pop up box which you label. I labeled mine Average days of repair. Then I picked 4 categories and put in 100 trails and clicked Ok. When the spreadsheet came up I place in the value section 1, 2, 3, 4 and he frequency I placed 0.2, 0.45., 0.25, and 0.10 and clicked solved in the top. This gave me an average of 2.31 days. By hand I calculated the copies per day. I repeated the steps for getting the weeks between break down. I picked 4 categories and 100 trials. For the values I placed in 1, 2, 3, 4 symbolizing the weeks and 1,1,1,1 for the frequency. This simulation gave me the average of 2.68. By hand I calculated the estimated loss of revenue per year. The third simulation was to determine the loss of revenue per day. The values that were used were the estimated dollar amount and the frequency that I used was 1, 1, 1. This gave me an average of 521 days. I then by hand found the estimated revenue lost. Once the average numbers were tallied, I placed the numbers in the stimulation to gather the average cost per year which was by, simulation 23,633. 58 to 23,931.54 and by estimate was 23,100. The overall view the QM simulation if uses correctly and numbers are used correctly gives a correct simulation of loss or profit. I believe just using......

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...Assignment #1: JET Copies Case Problem Read the “JET Copies” Case Problem on pages 678-679 of the text. Using simulation estimate the loss of revenue due to copier breakdown for one year, as follows: 1. In Excel, use a suitable method for generating the number of days needed to repair the copier, when it is out of service, according to the discrete distribution shown. 2. In Excel, use a suitable method for simulating the interval between successive breakdowns, according to the continuous distribution shown. 3. In Excel, use a suitable method for simulating the lost revenue for each day the copier is out of service. 4. Put all of this together to simulate the lost revenue due to copier breakdowns over 1 year to answer the question asked in the case study. 5. In a word processing program, write a brief description/explanation of how you implemented each component of the model. Write 1-2 paragraphs for each component of the model (days-to-repair; interval between breakdowns; lost revenue; putting it together). 6. Answer the question posed in the case study. How confident are you that this answer is a good one? What are the limits of the study? Write at least one paragraph. There are two deliverables for this Case Problem, the Excel spreadsheet and the written description/explanation. 1. Days-to-repair: If you assume that the number of days needed to repair a copier is random, you can generate a random number denoted r2 between 0 and 1: 0......

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...Jamie Banks, Ernie Moore and Terri Jones were students in State University. They always have to go far to make copies in Klecko’s copy center as there was no copying service nearby where they live by the south gate. One day while James was standing in line at Klecko’s copy center waiting for his turn, he realizes how much time they are wasting just by waiting as most students use the same machine to get copies. James got an idea from other student who was waiting for his turn as James, if he can have a copy center by the Southgate where most of the students live, he easily can make lots of money. James shares his idea with friends Ernie and Terri and they liked the idea. Three of them decided to start the copying business and they would call it JET Copies named after the first letter of their name. They bought a copier similar to the one used at the university for $18,000.00.They enquire about the reliability of the copier and came to know that the university copier broke down frequently and when it did it often require between 1 and 4 days to get it repaired. As Repair time include the time portion during which technicians are working on a machine to effect repair starting from preparation, fault location, fault correction and final check time, it needs time between 1 and 4 days to get it repaired. During this repair time they will always lose Revenue and they become worried. So they decided they might need back up copier to use in these repair time in......

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