Information Content

In: Business and Management

Submitted By jzfliu
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Advance Questions

Information content of equity analyst reports
Required reading: Page 245-259, 276-281

The following questions would help you read through this paper and prepare for the discussion of this paper in class. 1. How does a typical analyst report look like? What are the major signals that you can use / construct for trading purpose?

Analyst report: is the culmination of a process that includes the collection, evaluation, and dissemination of information related to a firm’s future performance. * The majority of analyst report includes 3 key measures: * 1) earnings forecast * 2) stock recommendation (buy/sell/hold) * 5 Distinct Recommendations: strong buy, buy, hold, sell, strong sell (For each recommendation, assess whether to upgrade, iterate or downgrade) * 3) price target * These reports frequently present extensive quantitative and qualitative analysis supporting the summary measures. (R2, regression, etc)

When we read analyst reports, we have to be suspicious, since their analysis differ and might have access to only popular information.

2. How to measure the accuracy of price targets? Can you construct other measures of your own?

We consider a price target prediction to be accurate if the analyzed firm’s stock price equals or exceeds the 12-month projected price at any time during the year following the release of the report.

Construction of other measures: you can take the average of the 12 month and see the difference with the target price.

3. How to quantify the justifications for an analyst’s opinion about the underlying firm?

Table 1, Panel B: positive and negative remarks recorded for 14 different criteria (revenue growth, earnings growth, new product introductions, new projects, cost efficiencies, expectations met, mergers and acquisitions, repurchase programs,…...

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