I'M Me

In: Computers and Technology

Submitted By juju0913
Words 622
Pages 3
The announcement, on May 22, that QE3 would be gradually tapered in the future led to a turmoil in international financial markets, as investors turned back to developed economies’ assets, giving way to a significant depreciation of the emerging countries’ currencies. From May to August, the Brazilian real depreciated over 20%, with the US dollar rising from R$ 2 to R$ 2.45. The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) started to intervene heavily, via exchange rate swaps, akin to sales of US dollar futures. After selling US$ 43.9 billion in exchange rate swaps, on August 22, the BCB launched a program committing itself to sell half billion dollar in exchange swaps daily from Monday to Thursday, and to auction one billion in credit lines on Fridays. The program, together with previous interventions, would total US$ 100 billion in interventions in 2013. Up to December 11, the BCB had sold 76.6 billion in swaps and extended 14.7 billion in credit lines to banks. The chart below illustrates the evolution of the BCB’s interventions and the exchange rate (in units of real per US dollar, i.e., an increase means a depreciation of the real). The program’s announcement coincided with the reversal of the exchange depreciation trend. However, it is important to bear in mind that FED’s decision to postpone the tapering, in mid September, also allowed many other EM currencies to appreciate. Last week, the BCB announced that it would proceed with the program in 2014, with some adjustments, that shall be announced over the next days. Which adjustments would be advisable? What should the BCB be doing from now on? The fundamental question is: what is the true goal of BCB’s interventions? The present current account deficit, a measure of external savings, is at the high level of 3.7% of GDP (about US$ 80 billion). Given that Brazil investment/GDP ratio is quite low, less than 20% of GDP, such…...

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