Freemark Abbey

In: Business and Management

Submitted By faisalalimalik
Words 576
Pages 3
Decision Analysis DISC 321
Case 2

Group 3
Hafsa Siddique 17110055
Faisal Ali 17110282
Aleem ud din Khan 17110267
Hassaan Butt 17110117

We first divided the mess being analyzed into a clear, structured problem statement as follows
Objective: To decide if Freemark Abbey Winery should harvest the Riesling grapes immediately or leave them on the vines despite the approaching storm.
Assumptions:
1-We assumed that the list of possibilities provided is mutually exclusive as well as exhaustive. This means that either one has to occur, as well as no other possible option exists.
2-The payoffs are calculated based on 1000 cases of wine.
3-The given probabilities accurately reflect reality
Analysis:
At the moment Freemark Abbey Winery has two alternatives: to harvest or not to harvest. If they choose not to harvest there is 50% chance that storm might hit. And if the storm hits there is a probability of 40% that Botryis mold will form which will significantly affect the revenue. Freemark Abbey Winery faces another decision if the storm hits and Botryis mold will not form, because if Botryis mold will not form the sugar level which determines the quality of wine and revenue will be different, so the decision that they faces is that whether to sell the grapes in bulk or to make and sell the wine themselves.
If the storm hits and mold is formed then the revenue will be 67,200 but the chance of this happening is only 40%. As compared to this there is a 60% chance that mold will not form if storm hits and in that case company will either sell grapes in bulk or they will compromise on the quality of the wine and will produce and sell thin wine at $2.00/bottle.
We will analyze the both cases, that is, either to produce thin wine or to sell it in bulk, separately.

Case 1 (sell in bulk):
If they decide to sell the grapes in bulk then the EMV of the storm…...

Similar Documents

Abbey Winery

...Arkansas State University | Freemark Abbey Winery | Team 1 | | Assignment | 11/28/2012 | | Case Summary Freemark Abbey Winery should make a decision whether to harvest or not, taking into consideration the possibility of rain. Rain may damage the crop but delaying the harvest would be risky too. Keeping in mind rain could be beneficial and will increase the value of the resulting wine. This decision is complicated by the fact that ripe Riesling grapes can be converted to wine in two ways, resulting in two different types of wine. Factors that should be taken into consideration Probability of rain, mold formation, acidity, sugar level, wine price, and reputation. Mr. Jaeger’s possible choices: Harvest now or later. Solution: The payoffs are calculated based on 1000 cases of wine. 1. There are two alternatives: * Waiting (W) for the storm to come. * Harvest (H) now. * If he waited, the storm may or may not hit. * If the storm hits, the mold may or may not form, which greatly affect the revenue. * If the storm hits and no mold form, the sugar level which determines the quality of the wine is uncertain. The quality of wine produced affects the company’s reputation. * If storm hits and mold do not form: Sell the grapes in bulk (B), or make the thin (light) wine and sell it (T). * The best decision: Where the expected value (EV) maximizes current returns. * The blue values represent selling the harvest in bulk......

Words: 530 - Pages: 3

To What Extent Is Northanger Abbey a Bildungsroman?

...Karolína Sailerová Long Essay 3. To what extent is Northanger Abbey a bildungsroman? Lisette Allen, MA (Cantab) English Skills and Cultural Communication 20 December 2012 1812 words Jane Austen is without doubt one of the greatest as well as most widely read novel writers in English literature. It is not easy to identify her with some literary movement. As Andrew H. Wright suggests in his book Jane Austen’s Novels, she is not really a writer of the nineteenth century to be called Romantic, “too much a person of her time to be called Classic, too original and too great to be considered a precursor or an apotheosis... .”[1] She is unique as well as her books are, especially Northanger Abbey. When thinking about this novel in detail, it becomes quite confusing, as Northanger Abbey can be placed in several generic categories. The most important one is bildungsroman. Bildungsroman is a German term for a novel of formation, as J. A. Cuddon states it means “literally an ‘upbringing’ or ‘education’ novel […] it refers to a novel which is an account of the youthful development of a hero or heroine […] it describes the processes by which maturity is achieved through the various ups and downs of life.”[2] We do see a development in the heroine of Northanger Abbey. However, Austen’s constant mocking of Catherine and her use of irony make it hard to distinguish to what extent Northanger Abbey is a bildungsroman and to what extent Jane Austen uses Catherine and her transformation......

Words: 1849 - Pages: 8

Abbey

...Determination of Acetic Acid in Vinegar Introduction: Vinegar is a dilute solution of acetic acid. Since vinegar is an acid it can be titrated with a base. Titration is the process of adding a known amount of a solution of known concentration to a known amount of solution of unknown concentration. The more accurately the concentration of the solution of known concentration is known, the more accurately the concentration of the unknown solution can be determined. Some chemicals can be purchased in a pure form and remain pure over a long period or time. Other chemicals are easily contaminated by the absorption of carbon dioxide or water from the air. Sodium hydroxide absorbs moisture from the air and often appears wet. Thus if a solution of sodium hydroxide is prepared by weighing the sodium hydroxide, the concentration of the solution may not be precisely the intended concentration. Potassium hydrogen phthalate on the other hand, has a lesser tendency to absorb water from the air and when dried will remain dry for a reasonable period of time. Potassium hydrogen phthalate may be purchased in pure form at reasonable cost. Potassium hydrogen phthalate is a primary standard. This means that carefully prepared solutions of known concentration of potassium hydrogen phthalate may be used to determine, by titration, the concentration of another solution such as sodium hydroxide. The equation for the reaction of potassium hydrogen phthalate with sodium hydroxide is: ...

Words: 1387 - Pages: 6

Freemark Abey Winery

...MEMORANDUM To: Mr. William Jaeger From: Consulting Group Date: January 19, 2013 Subject: Options and Best Practices for Winery From my research, word of mouth and your product itself, I am aware that Freemark Abbey Winery’s reputation is one of its greatest strengths. However, I understand that the weather plays as both a threat and opportunity for the wine industry as a whole. There are reports of a rainstorm in route to Napa Valley with a 50% chance of striking your winery; this is why you have reached out to my firm, Consulting Group. We have carefully analyzed all options and are ready to offer our recommendation. Problem Freemark Abbey Winery is known for producing premium wines; nevertheless, not choosing the best action to take in anticipation of this rainstorm may hinder your ability to even produce a premium wine for sale this quarter. A decision tree was constructed to weigh out Freemark Abbey Winery’s options. The winery has two alternatives: 1. do nothing and wait for the storm to greet the winery or 2. harvest the grapes immediately to avoid the rainstorm’s effects. Both options yield vastly different alternatives that we deem critical to your winery’s profit, revenue and reputation. Evaluation If Freemark Abbey immediately harvests its grapes, it incurs little risk and no further worry at first glance. Conversely, this option allows the winery to harvest “not quite-ripe grapes” resulting in weak revenues. This option......

Words: 943 - Pages: 4

Freemark Abbey

...before the harvest is more likely to produce rain-soaked berries, yielding a thin wine that would sell wholesale for only about $2.00 per bottle and costing Freemark Abbey Winery its reputation. It could sell the wine in bulk or sell the grapes directly to preserve its reputation but these options would bring only half as much revenue, which is the second decision problem. Hence, Freemark Abbey Winery might be better off harvesting immediately before the storm and eliminating the risk of the rain spoiling the grapes. The not-so-ripe grapes could yield wine that sells for $2.85 per bottle. If Jaeger decided to harvest later and the storm did not strike, there is a high chance that the acidity of the grapes would not fall below about 0.7 percent. In this case, the resulting wines would still sell at a higher price than wine produced from the not-so-ripe grapes harvested now, regardless of what the weather condition is like. However, there is a slight chance that the acidity of the of the grapes would drop below about 0.7, in which case the resulting wine would sell at a slightly lower price of $2.50 per bottle. To make this decision, a decision tree, Michael Porters (1997) five forces analysis, and SWOT analysis are used to aid in the decision making process. Both five forces analysis and SWOT analysis reveal that Freemark Abbey Winery should pursue a differentiation strategy. The bargaining power of customers for small wineries is lower than that for mid-size......

Words: 486 - Pages: 2

Øm Abbey

...udelader datoer, hvilket gør det svært at se hvornår eksempelvis de pavelige breve er skrevet. Dette er med til at gøre det svært at få et kronologisk overblik. Det er også vigtig at se på oversættelsen som, Jørgen Olrik har lavet af krøniken. Han har udeladt to langt senere tilføjede stykker blandt andet en abbedliste over alle 27 abbeder og nogle sider omkring Øm Klosters gods på Djursland. Udeladelsen af disse to stykker har ikke den store indvirkning på analysen idet at der er valgt en tidsafgrænsning der hedder 1165-1267. Vender vi blikket mod forskningslitteraturen, der bliver brugt i opgaven, så drejer det sig primært om tre bøger: to bøger af den amerikanske forsker Brian Patrick McGuire2 henholdsvis ” Conflict and Continuity at Om Abbey: A Cistercian Experience in Medieval Denmark” og ”The Cistercians in Denmark: Their Attitudes, Roles, and Functions in Medieval Society”. ”Øm Kloster” af Bo Gregersen og Carsten Selch Jensen er den tredje bog. Disse tre bøger bliver brugt både til at se på standardsynet på ejerskab af jord og striden om gæsteri og til at se på, hvordan biskopperne i Århus så på konflikten over dispositionsret over jord og gæsteri. 4. Klostervæsnet i Europa De første klostre opstod i Egypten og Syrien som et samlingssted for mennesker, der havde forsaget det verdslige liv og søgt ud i ødemarkens ensomhed for at dyrke Gud ved bøn og askese, mens andre forsøgte at undslippe det verdslige ved flugt. Centralt for klostervæsnet i Vesten var især to......

Words: 7637 - Pages: 31

Mrs Abbey Walsh

...Diarrhoeal disease is a prominent cause of child mortality in developing nations (Green, Small, & Casman, 2009). This essay will explore how increased road and highway construction is one environmental determinant that is having a distally negative effect on individuals’ health in developing countries (Joseph et al., 2006). It will be argued that access to clean water and health education, regarding infectious contamination, as well as sanitation and hygiene, are significant resources for reducing diarrhoeal disease incidences (Green, Small, & Casman, 2009). Diarrhoeal disease is classified as the excessive passing, exceeding three, of loose or liquid stools daily; which is commonly a symptom of an intestinal tract infection, brought on by bacteria, parasites’ or virus’(Jamison, 2006). This disease is transmitted through the consumption of faeces contaminated food or water, as well as physical human contact, resulting from poor hygiene (Bain et al., 2014). There are 1.7 billion reported incidences annually of diarrhoeal disease across the world (World Health Organisation, 2013). Approximately 760,000 are morbidity cases of children under the age of five (World Health Organisation, 2013). Some key determinants of diarrhoeal disease are clean drinking water, sanitation and hygiene (Prüss-Ustün et al., 2014). Joseph, et al., (2006) states environmental changes, like road construction, exasperate the prevalence of diarrhoeal disease in developing nations. Developing......

Words: 903 - Pages: 4

Edward Abbey and Kant

...12 pure rational concepts split into four fields: quantity, quality, relation and modality. He believed that human reasoning connected those thoughts to everything. When Abbey refers to seeing certain aspects of the desert landscape in an Anti-Kantian manner, he wants the boundaries of human reason to be broken so that humans can experience the greatness of the landscape without having to be held back by the restrictions of human reason. In the First Morning, Abbey begins to describe his “most beautiful place on Earth” (Abbey, Desert Solitaire A Season in the Wilderness , 1971) the first two pages of the initial chapters focuses upon the description of the desert landscape. His perspective on the desert prevents readers from coming to their own conclusions, again showing the limitations of human reason. Kant also believed that certain actions like murder, theft and lying should be strongly prohibited. In The Critique of Pure Reason, Kant says “He who is cruel to animals becomes hard also in his dealings with men. We can judge the heart of a man by his treatment of animals”. Abbey however in chapter, Abbey willingly kills the innocent rabbit and has no problem with it. This goes to show how anti-kantian Abbey’s ways are and puts emphasis on Abbey as a person. Contrary to many critiques of author’s goal Abbey made his intention in writing Desert Solitaire quite clear in his Introduction. He says: "Do not jump into your automobile next June and rush out ... to see some of......

Words: 810 - Pages: 4

Freemark Abbey Case

...Freemark Abbey Strategic Decision Making Problem Freemark Abbey has an invaluable reputation as a winery that produces high quality, premium wines from the best variety of grapes. The quality and brand built throughout the years is the cumulative result of making well thought out, informed decisions that have earned Freemark Abbey the respect and demand in the winemaking industry. Several considerations are given in producing a consistently high quality product. The seeds, soil, weather, maturation time of the grapes, timing of the harvest, fermentation time, acidity and sugar levels all play an important role in product delivery. Careful consideration must be given in order to uphold one of Freemark Abbey's greatest strengths, it's reputation. For this decision, we considered multiple points in the decision making process, considering the probability of rain, sugar and acidity levels, as well as the possibility of botrytis mold forming after a potential rainstorm. With reports of a rainstorm ahead with a 50% chance of it striking the winery, we constructed a decision tree and analysis to help guide the decision process and support the resulting recommendation. Initially, Mr. Jaeger is faced with two options; harvest the grapes immediately or wait for the storm to occur at a 50% probability. The options provide very different outcomes that will ultimately affect the winery's earnings and brand. If the grapes are harvested immediately, there is very list risk...

Words: 758 - Pages: 4

Freemark Abbey Winery

...Freemark Abbey Winery Group ZZZ 1. Construct the decision tree for William Jaeger. 2. What should he do? Jaeger should choose to harvest later and wait for the storm. If the storm does come but destroys the grapes, he can decide whether to bottle wine or not to protect winery’s reputation. In either way, he will gain higher revenues from harvesting later than harvesting immediately: EV of “Do not harvest & Bottling”: $39240 EV of “Do not harvest & Not bottling”: $39240-$12000*0.6*0.5=$35640 EV of “Harvest”: $34200 If the winery’s reputation is of great importance for long term profitability, he should choose to sell the wine in bulk, or sell the grapes directly to avoid impairing reputation. Besides, Riesling wines contribute only about 1,000 cases of wine, and the whole winery produced about 25,000 cases of wine bottled each year. Since the Riesling takes only about 4% of winery’s total production and the decision analysis only affects a small proportion of winery revenues, an expected value approach is used (not expected utility approach). However, if Jaeger is extremely risk average or the winery could not afford any risks at that time, he could choose to harvest immediately to reduce uncertainty. 3. Incorporate the option that Jaeger can obtain perfect weather information on the path of the storm into your decision tree. Note that the type of storm remains uncertain. 4. What should he do now? And at most how much he is willing to pay for......

Words: 535 - Pages: 3

Tintern Abbey

...from William Wordsworth and Samuel Taylor Coleridge Lyrical Ballads [London: J. & A. Arch, 1798] LINES WRITTEN A FEW MILES ABOVE TINTERN ABBEY, ON REVISITING THE BANKS OF THE WYE DURING A TOUR, July 13, 1798. ===== Five years have passed; five summers, with the length | | Of five long winters! and again I hear | | These waters, rolling from their mountain-springs | | With a sweet inland murmur.*—Once again | | Do I behold these steep and lofty cliffs, | | Which on a wild secluded scene impress | | Thoughts of more deep seclusion; and connect | | The landscape with the quiet of the sky. | | The day is come when I again repose | | Here, under this dark sycamore, and view | 10 | These plots of cottage-ground, these orchard-tufts, | | Which, at this season, with their unripe fruits, | | Among the woods and copses lose themselves, | | Nor, with their green and simple hue, disturb | | The wild green landscape. Once again I see | | These hedge-rows, hardly hedge-rows, little lines | | Of sportive wood run wild; these pastoral farms, | | Green to the very door; and wreathes of smoke | | Sent up, in silence, from among the trees, | | With some uncertain notice, as might seem, | 20 | Of vagrant dwellers in the houseless woods, | | Or of some hermit's cave, where by his fire | | The hermit sits alone. | |                                      Though absent long, | | These forms......

Words: 1451 - Pages: 6

Freemark Abbey Winery Case

...Freemark Abbey Winery Case The Freemark Abbey Winery must decide whether to harvest their grape crop before or after an incoming storm. If the storm is light there is a chance of the grapes developing a mold, which is beneficial to the flavor and increases the wine’s value. There is also a possibility that the grapes will not become botrytised and will simply absorb water which will reduce the wine value. There are a number of options available to the winery in this situation. The grapes may be harvested immediately, resulting in a reduced revenue. This option is low risk, but also has low return as the grapes will reach a market value of $2.85 per case. If harvested and sold in bulk the grapes will be values at only $1.00 per case. If 12,000 cases are produced the total revenue will be $34,200 maximum and $12,000 minimum. The advantages of this are that the entire grape crop is not going to be lost (low risk), that there will be a guarantee of some profit, and that production can begin earlier. On the other hand there is a higher likelihood of a low return, particularly on the grapes sold in bulk. If the grapes are left on the vine and a storm does not come they will only ripen more. This option could lead to equal or greater profits than those found by harvesting immediately. The grapes left on the vine will have the potential to develop to bring in anywhere from $30000 to $46000. The disadvantages of this option would be the potential that the grapes’ sugar will not......

Words: 635 - Pages: 3

Freemark Winery

...Hermalin Consulting “The Nerd in the Know” TM To: Mr. William Jaeger From: Benjamin E. Hermalin, ph.d. Re: Harvesting Decision I have analyzed your harvesting decision problem. Figure 1 represents your problem in terms of a decision tree. Botrytis [.4] 2 storm [.5] 4 wait 5 no storm 3 [.5] sell as bulk $12,000 + C $42,000 good luck [.4] okay luck [.4] bad luck [.2] $36,000 [.6] no Botrytis 1 bottle $24,000 - R $67,200 $30,000 $34,200 harvest now Figure 1: The harvesting decision represented as a decision tree. In Figure 1, R denotes the monetary value of the loss of reputation you would suffer from bottling an inferior wine, while C denotes the cost saving from not bottling your own wine, should you choose to sell in bulk. Assuming the information you gave me is correct (more on this later), R and C are irrelevant to the problem. Given the information you provided, it seems safe to assume that C < $15, 000.∗ Even assuming the worst, R ≥ $12, 000 and C = $0, the option of waiting has a greater expected value than the decision to harvest now: $35,640 versus $34,200.† If the worst is not true (i.e., R < $12, 000 or C > $0), the the option of waiting is even more valuable. Consequently, unless you strongly dislike risk, you should wait to harvest. Your expected gain from waiting is at least 4% (worst-case scenario). If the very best-case scenario in which the node (labeled as ①) is worth $28,200 (see Technical Appendix for underlying calculations), your expected......

Words: 1529 - Pages: 7

Freemark Abbey

...I participated in Teladoc’s webinar, “Behavioral Health Goes Virtual.” This webinar begins to ramp up Teladoc’s push for virtual behavioral health visits with psychologist, psychiatrists, and other licensed therapists. They are transforming their access to care through enhanced programs like behavioral health, dermatology, and tobacco cessation. They began the webinar by presenting a need for a more comprehensive behavioral health solution. According to their studies, over 240 billion dollars was spent last year by the U.S. system on behavioral health issues and 45% of those untreated cited cost as a major barrier to care. Only 41% of adults with a mental health condition received health services in the past year. Teladoc plans to capture some of these people untreated by offering convenient access to quality care they can trust. The ROI proposition that they presented is that their services will lower overall costs for healthcare by being more accurate in diagnosing behavioral health issues and providing more effective care that will result in happy and healthier employees. Their studies show that depression leads to lost productivity and employees loose an average of 9.9 annual sick days due to depression. More tele-behavioral providers means a better ability to serve more people in need. A total of 818 tele-behavioral providers will be participating on Teladoc’s behavioral platform. This includes 119 Psychiatrists, 109 Psychologists, and 590 Masters-level therapists...

Words: 468 - Pages: 2

Tintern Abbey as a Nature Poem

...Tintern Abbey as a nature poem Throughout Wordsworth’s poem “Tintern Abbey,” he uses the image of the eyes, more specifically what the eye is able to perceive. He begins the poem by describing what it is his eyes are seeing as he paints for the reader a picture of where he is situated in nature. Details of shape, color and movement are revealed, yet it is not with the eyes that the scene is made visible to readers, it is with the mind that the trees, rocks and hedge-rows emerge. This plays into Wordsworth’s idea that eyes limit what we see. It is with our minds that we must look at the world around us. This idea is revisited by the discussion of memories. He writes, “These beauteous forms, through a long absence, have not been to me as is a landscape to a blind man’s eye” (22-24). A blind man only sees with his head, but Wordsworth’s eyes aid him as he remembers what he once saw. Unlike a blind man he has his past to draw from, but because he is relying on his mind, the landscape will not be exactly as he remembers. The mind’s view also has limitations. Memories are once again internal; we draw on what our eyes have shown us, but we must use our brains to fill in the gaps. Wordsworth uses his memories of nature to calm himself and to restore his tranquillity. This calming effect also happens when he is physically look at nature. He writes, “We are laid asleep in body, and become a living soul: While with an eye made quiet by the power of harmony, and the deep power of......

Words: 708 - Pages: 3