Forecasting

In: Business and Management

Submitted By soniajustin
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Chapter 6: Forecasting Bank Prime Loan Rate Month Percent
29. Examine the chart of the data in Prime Rate.xls. What type of forecasting model would be appropriate? Jan-1971 6.29 Confirm your hypothesis with CB Predictor. Feb-1971 5.88 Mar-1971 5.44 Apr-1971 5.28 May-1971 5.46 Jun-1971 5.50 Jul-1971 5.91 Aug-1971 6.00 Sep-1971 6.00 Oct-1971 5.90 Nov-1971 5.53 Dec-1971 5.49 Jan-1972 5.18 Feb-1972 4.75 Mar-1972 4.75 Apr-1972 4.97 May-1972 5.00 Probably not much of a trend component, there may be seasonality. Jun-1972 5.04 Jul-1972 5.25 Aug-1972 5.27 Series: Bank Prime Loan Rate Sep-1972 5.50 Oct-1972 5.73 Method: Holt-Winters' Multiplicative Nov-1972 5.75 Parameters: Dec-1972 5.79 Alpha: 0.999 Jan-1973 6.00 Beta: 0.985 Feb-1973 6.02 Gamma: 0.001 Mar-1973 6.30 Error: 0.5496 Apr-1973 6.61 May-1973 7.01 Series Statistics: Jun-1973 7.49 Mean: 9.35 Jul-1973 8.30 Std. Dev.: 3.11 Aug-1973 9.23 Minimum: 4.75 Sep-1973 9.86 Maximum: 20.50 Oct-1973 9.94 Ljung-Box: 4794.0645 Nov-1973 9.75 Dec-1973 9.75 Method Errors: Apr-1976 6.75 May-1976 6.75 Method RMSE MAD MAPE Jun-1976 7.20 Best: Holt-Winters' Multiplicative 0.5496 0.276 2.65% Jul-1976 7.25 2nd: Double Exponential Smoothing 0.5592 0.2617 2.46% Aug-1976 7.01 3rd: Single Exponential Smoothing 0.5699 0.2687 2.51% Sep-1976 7.00 4th: Single Moving Average 0.5704 0.2693 2.52% Oct-1976 6.77 5th: Seasonal Multiplicative 0.5711 0.2941 2.79% Nov-1976 6.50 6th: Seasonal Additive 0.5947 0.3018 2.94% Dec-1976 6.35 7th:…...

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