Assessment of Impacts of Climate Variability in Kilosa District, Morogoro Region in Tanzania

In: Science

Submitted By Mechili
Words 8286
Pages 34
Assessment of Impacts of climate variability in Kilosa District, Morogoro Region in Tanzania Scientist. Gerald Mrema. PRECS M&C LTD, P.O. Box 10268, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania *Corresponding Author (Tel: +255714254900 e-mail: mrema.gerald@gmail.com) Abstract This research is basically on assessment of impacts of climate variability in Kilosa District Morogoro Region in Tanzania were the field study was done within three wards that is Ulaya, Kilosa town and Rudewa represent three major zones of Kilosa District that is highlands, midlands and lowlands respectively. Methodologies that were used in field study include physical observation, consultation, interview through research question, literature review and GIS in map updating. Data from Tanzania meteorological agency (TMA), WAMI/RUVU basin and Morogoro agriculture department of rainfall and temperature, water level and water discharge also crop production respectively for 30years from 1980 to 2010 were analyzed statistically in order to show the link between climate variability with its associated impacts in both people and environment at large, results shows that climate variability in Kilosa District generally is of both dry and wet years in different years where the area also experience both MAM and OND seasons of rainfall per year. Also results have revealed that the total annual rainfall at Kilosa is observed to decreases at the rate of 8.04mm/year while in temperature there a slight increase at a rate of 0.1oC/year in temperature amount, also results of questionnaires show that a good number of people 78% are aware of the decrease in rainfall amount while 16% are aware of its increase and 6% says there are no changes in climate variability, the change in both rainfall and temperature amount is associated with different human practice. Also the results have reveled among extreme weather event which are associated…...

Similar Documents

Climate Change and Impact on Singapore

...Although climate change will very likely be the greatest challenge our succeeding generation has to face, it remains today an extremely contentious issue, polarising opinion in countries and scientific communities worldwide. It is also a cause that has been hijacked by interest groups, journalists and politicians alike, with many claiming that its effects have been blown out of proportion. One thing, however, is certain; the divisiveness of the issue stems largely from our yet limited understanding of climate change and global warming. Thus, for the purpose of answering this question, I will use the framework of understanding of knowns, unknowns, and known- unknowns as utilised by global militaries in decision analysis, to examine the effects of climate change and how we can better prepare for it. What are the knowns about climate change in relation to our country? As any casual observer can discern, Singapore is bordered on all directions by water, with a 200 kilometer coastline. Quite appropriately, many have cited the rising sea level - caused by global warming- as the foremost danger that climate change poses to our nation. The median sea level has been estimated to have risen at the rate of about three millimetres every year from per year for the decade 1993- 2003 ; this, when taken in consideration together with the near- flat topography of Singapore, would surely be a cause for concern. The effects of rising sea- levels on our small island- nation are not......

Words: 1982 - Pages: 8

Household Projections for Tanzania: 2003-2025

...HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS FOR TANZANIA: 2003-2025 Josephat Peter M.A. (Statistics) Dissertation University of Dar es Salaam November, 2007 HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS FOR TANZANIA: 2003-2025 By Josephat Peter A Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts (Statistics) of the University of Dar es Salaam University of Dar es Salaam November, 2007 CERTIFICATION The undersigned certify that he has read and hereby recommend for acceptance by the University of Dar es Salaam a dissertation entitled Household Projections for Tanzania: 2003-2025, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts (Statistics) of the University of Dar es Salaam. …………………………………………………………… Prof. C.L. KAMUZORA (Supervisor) Date: ………………………………………………………. DECLARATION AND COPYRIGHT I, Josephat Peter, declare that this thesis is my own original work and that it has not been presented and will not be presented to any other University for a similar or any other degree award. Signature ………………………………………………. This thesis is copyright material protected under the Berne Convention, the Copyright Act 1999 and other international and national enactments, in that behalf, on intellectual property. It may not be reproduced by any means, in full or in part, except for short extracts in fair dealings, for research or private study, critical scholarly review or discourse with an acknowledgment, without the written...

Words: 22571 - Pages: 91

Impact of Climate Change on Food Security

...Abstract Climate Change is a global problem that is creating regional impacts to food security. Climate studies require the analysis of vast pools of data that are more easily processed by filtering down to the micro-climates or sub-climates of particular regions. Many studies have been completed utilizing global climate observations in an attempt to model changes to regional food production zones. Private organizations or government grant making groups with an interest in how climate change will directly impact their particular food security have funded most of the research available on this topic. Much of the literature available indicates that economically secure countries are more equipped to handle the food security impacts of climate change and have dedicated fewer resources to studying this issue. Three regions that have completed significant climate studies in relation to food security are Eurasia, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Australia (to include the Pacific island nations). All three regions discuss the use of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) to address their food security concerns. The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security Climate change presents a multitude of potentially dangerous issues for world communities to solve. Perhaps the largest of these issues is the impact of climate change on food security. T. Thamizhvanan and K. Balaguru (2012) indicate that food security has four dimensions: “availability, accessibility, food utilization,...

Words: 3026 - Pages: 13

Impact of Climate Change on Apiculture

...sci. tech. Off. int. Epiz., 2008, 27 (2), 499-510 Climate change: impact on honey bee populations and diseases Y. Le Conte (1) & M. Navajas (2) (1) French National Institute for Agronomic Research (Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - INRA), UMR 406 Abeilles et Environment (INRA/UAPV), Laboratoire Biologie et Protection de l’Abeille, Site Agroparc, Domaine Saint-Paul, 84914 Avignon Cedex 9, France (2) French National Institute for Agronomic Research (INRA), UMR CBGP (INRA/IRD/CIRAD/Montpellier SupAgro), Campus International de Baillarguet, CS 30016, 34988 Montferrier-sur-Lez Cedex, France Summary The European honey bee, Apis mellifera, is the most economically valuable pollinator of agricultural crops worldwide. Bees are also crucial in maintaining biodiversity by pollinating numerous plant species whose fertilisation requires an obligatory pollinator. Apis mellifera is a species that has shown great adaptive potential, as it is found almost everywhere in the world and in highly diverse climates. In a context of climate change, the variability of the honey bee’s lifehistory traits as regards temperature and the environment shows that the species possesses such plasticity and genetic variability that this could give rise to the selection of development cycles suited to new environmental conditions. Although we do not know the precise impact of potential environmental changes on honey bees as a result of climate change, there is a large body of data at our......

Words: 8079 - Pages: 33

Impact of Climate Change

...The Impact Of Climate Change On Nature The Impact Of Climate Change On Nature Climate change affects are more complex than just a change in the weather. It refers to seasonal changes which occur over many years. Climate patterns play an important role in molding the ecosystems. Many wildlife species and human cultures depend on them. A change in climate can have a major impact on how and where plants and animals eat and live. For example, a change in the usual rain pattern or temperature can have a drastic affect on when animals breed, migrate, and hibernate. It also affects plant life cycles and their ability to grow. The impact that climate change has on nature can be catastrophic. Climate change has already had a noticeable effect across the globe and on the environment. Glaciers are shrinking, ice along rivers and lakes are melting earlier, plants and animals have shifted their ranges, trees are flowering sooner, and sea levels are rising. These effects were predicted in the past by scientists, and they are finally occurring. Most of climate change is caused by global warming and the greenhouse effect. (Gardiner, 2004) Global warming is a rise in the average temperature on the earth’s surface. Scientists who study the climate have evaluated climate patterns since the early 1800’s. From their evaluations, they have noticed a rise in temperature, from about 0.7 to 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit and they estimate...

Words: 3361 - Pages: 14

Effects of Climate Change and Global Warming in Agricultural Regions

...agriculture for their employment and income. However, global climate change will affect the government’s efforts to alleviate poverty and fast-track development in rural areas. Definition of terms Global warming: refers to the increased temperature of Earth's surface, including land, water and near-surface air. Climate change: means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods (UNFCCC). 2. Causes of Climate Change Any factor that causes a sustained change to the amount of incoming energy or the amount of outgoing energy can lead to climate change. They are factors that operate in favour of climate change; these factors that cause climate change can be divided into two categories. Those related to natural processes and those related to human activity. 1|Page 2.1.Natural causes There are a number of natural factors responsible for climate change. Some of the more prominent ones are continental drift, volcanoes, ocean currents, the earth's tilt, and comets. The first natural cause of climate change is continental drift which is the separation of the earth landmass into different continents. The continents that we see today were formed when the landmass began gradually drifting apart, millions of years back. This drift had an impact on the climate because it changed the physical features......

Words: 2789 - Pages: 12

The Impact of Climate Change on Africa

...The Impacts of Climate Change on the continent of Africa The African continent makes the least contribution to global warming, yet it is the most vulnerable to climate change- explain why? Africa is the continent that makes the least contribution to global warming, but yet it is the most vulnerable to climate change. This may be because the population is dependent on resources which are climate-sensitive such as local water for farming and drinking. Africa is the poorest continent in the world which means it has very limited resources to respond to changing climate. Apart from poverty is suffers more than any other region from corrupt governance, civil war and constant tribal conflicts. The political turmoil means the appropriate responses aren’t made, making the impacts of climate change worse. The country also heavily relies on agriculture (70% of all employment), which is highly sensitive to climate change. Only 4% African farmland is irrigated, making agriculture susceptible to drought. These people have a reduced capacity to cope, e.g. subsistence farmers, who only grow enough to meet the needs of their family and have no income, will be at risk of starvation it climate change affects their crops. Future prediction Areas that are already dry (arid and semi-arid environments) are getting drier. Wetter areas (tropical and sub-tropical environments) are getting wetter. The whole continent is getting warmer – around 0.5 *C warmer in the last......

Words: 472 - Pages: 2

Climate Change

...Africa Regional Office Lusaka, Zambia Report Climate Change in Zambia: Opportunities for Adaptation and Mitigation through Africa Bio-Carbon Initiative By Samuel Mulenga Bwalya Peaks Environmental Management Consultants P.O Box 32632 Lusaka, Zambia January, 2010 Table of Contents Contents Page Table of Contents................................................................................................................. i List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... ii List of acronyms ................................................................................................................ iii Acknowledgements............................................................Error! Bookmark not defined. Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ v 1. Introduction................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Objectives of the study........................................................................................ 1 1.2 Approaches and methodology............................................................................. 2 2. Climate variability and impacts .................................................................................. 2 2.1 Climate variability......

Words: 15235 - Pages: 61

Agricultural Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Impacts

...AGRICULTURAL ADAPTATION STRATEGIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN AFRICA: A REVIEW Akinnagbe O.M* and Irohibe I. J. Department of Agricultural Extension, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Nigeria, Nsukka *E-mails: wolexakins@yahoo.com; oluwole.akinnagbe@unn.edu.ng Tel: +2348035399151 AGRICULTURAL ADAPTATION STRATEGIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN AFRICA: A REVIEW Abstract Climate change is expected to intensify existing problems and create new combinations of risks, particularly in Africa. The situation is made worst due to factors such as widespread poverty, overdependence on rainfed agriculture, inequitable land distribution, limited access to capital and technology, inadequate public infrastructure such as roads, long term weather forecasts and inadequate research and extension. By lessening the severity of key damages to the agricultural sector, adaptation is the key defensive measure. Adaptation to climate change involves changes in agricultural management practices in response to changes in climate conditions. This paper reviews agricultural adaptation strategies employed by farmers in various countries in Africa in cushioning the effects of climate change. The common agricultural adaptation strategies used by farmers were the use of drought resistant varieties of crops, crop diversification, change in cropping pattern and calendar of planting, conserving soil moisture......

Words: 4968 - Pages: 20

Impacts of Climate Change on Australian

...Q3 Impacts of climate change on Australian water resources The earth has a very perfect hydrologic cycle. It maintains water balance one the earth, promotes the prosperity of earth. However, the human activities in recent decades has largely disturb the hydrological cycle. Between 1990 and 2000, Australia lost an average of 325,900 hectares of forest per year. Australia has about 0.19% deforestation rate (mongabay, 2012). Due to the colonization and urbanization, in 200 years, Australia has lost 25% rainforest, 45% of open forest, 32% woodland forest and 30% of malle forest in 200 years (Forestnetwork, 2003). The situation has improved a lot in recent years as the government release many new policies to protect the forest resources. Forest can transport large amount of water into the atmosphere by plant transpiration. It replenishes the clouds and makes the rainfall. The rainfall brings water to the earth surface to refill ground water and irrigate the soils. It maintains earth water balance. However cutting forests can break this balance causes less rainfall, dry land and turns the forest into desert (WWF, 2015). Another big concern is the CO2 emission. Plants can mitigate carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions and release oxygen. The main purpose to cutting forest is burn the fuel. This process produces large amount of greenhouse gases. Deforestation makes the greenhouse effect worse. Australia are the highest greenhouse gas polluters, per-person, among the......

Words: 584 - Pages: 3

The Impact of Climate Change on the Uk Health

...THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE UK HEALTH By Name Course Professor’s Name Institution State Date In the modern society, human practices influence the environment in a negative way. Specifically, industrial, agricultural and domestic activities exacerbate the ecological system, affecting humans, animals, and plants. Greenhouse emissions, agricultural chemicals, and domestic toxics cause air and water pollutions that affect human health. Therefore, climate change is an imperative factor that needs proper redress in protecting the health of the UK citizen. Accordingly, this paper examines the holistic health experience associated with climate change. Particularly, the paper explores climatic changes such as pollution and flooding and their direct influence in human health through infection and diseases. Climate change in the twenty-first century plays a vital role in the issue of public health. The rapid population growth rate of the modern world endangers human development and weakening the capacity of the contemporary communities to adapt and respond to climate change. The interrelation of population and climate changes lies in mitigation and adaptation. For this reason, people should reduce the levels of greenhouse emission and subsequently decrease the vulnerability of the population to the effects of climatic change. The science of climate changes integrates profoundly with the dynamics of the population. For example, the mass...

Words: 2308 - Pages: 10

Anthropogenic Impact on Climate Change

...Environmental Ethics December 3, 2015 Anthropogenic Climate Change and Its Impacts The Earth’s climate is immensely susceptible to perturbations of natural systems. These fluctuations are incredibly cyclic, and have been studied to shift between periods of warm and cold temperature anomalies. Although the Earth cycles naturally on its own, it is evident that excessive emission production is enhancing the greenhouse effect, and therefore causing natural climatic shifts to happen at a faster rate. People are discernibly prone to assume that since Earth’s climate cycles naturally, that Global warming is autonomous of anthropogenic impact. Global warming is not the root of climate change, but instead the medium between anthropogenic intoxication of the atmosphere, and the response of Earth’s dynamic systems. It is not the actions of one individual that have an impact on the balance of Earth’s climate system; rather, it is the actions of many people, over a long period of time that will cause a chemical imbalance of the atmosphere, resulting in climate change. Nations that emit greenhouse gases at levels beyond their fair share of safe global emissions are obligated to aid in financing reasonable adaptation essentials and unavoidable damages of low-emitting countries and individuals that have done little to cause climate change. There is no one individual that can be held responsible for the damage associated with climate change. Instead of a single cause, millions of people......

Words: 2379 - Pages: 10

Climate Policy Framework of Tanzania

...Essay on the role of greenhouse gas emissions trading in the climate policy framework of Tanzania At the 13th conference of parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), held in Bali 2007, the agreement was to implement a REDD 1 policy in developing countries, to replace the first commitment period of Kyoto Protocol (2008-12). The REDD policy is designed to encourage developing countries with tropical forests to undertake measures that will minimize the rate of deforestation and forest degradation in exchange for receiving tradable carbon abatement credits financed by developed countries. It is in this regard, the greenhouse gas emission trading in Tanzania is conducted under the framework the UN-REDD policy framework. The framework emphasises the involvement of the local community in the design and implementation of the REDD strategy. It also recommends that the REDD strategy needs to be pro-poor. Greenhouse emissions trading can play a major role in a cost-effective climate policy framework. In Tanzania, there are various REDD related innovations and technologies already in the country that I foresee to help increase carbon sinks, avoid reducing carbon sinks, and reduce emissions from productive activities. Some of the REDD related innovations and technologies that Tanzania can offer in the international REDD architecture are:  Afforestation and reforestation activities - this is likely to be successful as a pro-poor REDD activity, due to...

Words: 510 - Pages: 3

Water and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Arab Region

...WATER AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARAB REGION Introduction Climate change (CC) refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity (IPCC ,2007). Science established a causal effect between the acceleration of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions and CC effects (IPCC ,2007), Global GHG emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004. Among the world’s regions, Arab region is especially vulnerable to climate change. It is one of the world’s driest, most water-scarce regions, depends on climate-sensitive agriculture. Per capita renewable water resources in the region, which in 1950 were 4,000 m3 per year, are currently 1,100 m3 per year. Projections indicate that they will drop by half, reaching 550 m3 per person per year in 2050.( World bank, 2006). In addition, climate-induced resource scarcity could further tensions in the region’s conflict-ridden areas, potentially escalating violence and political turmoil even beyond the region’s boundaries. This is supported by the fact that 80% of surface water resources and 66 % of total water resources in the Arab region is a shared water esources. Climate change is putting......

Words: 2328 - Pages: 10

Impact and Adaptation to Climate Change in Bangladesh

...1 Introduction According to the Third Assessment Report of IPCC, South Asia is the most vulnerable region of the world to climate change impacts (McCarthy et al., 2001). The international community also recognizes that Bangladesh ranks high in the list of most vulnerable countries on earth. Bangladesh’s high vulnerability to climate change is due to a number of hydro-geological and socio-economic factors that include: its geographical location in South Asia; its flat deltaic topography with very low elevation; its extreme climate variability that is governed by monsoon and which results in acute water distribution over space and time; its high population density and poverty incidence; and its majority of population being dependent on crop agriculture which is highly influenced by climate variability and change. Despite the recent strides towards achieving sustainable development, Bangladesh’s potential to sustain its development is faced with significant challenges posed by climate change (Ahmed and Haque, 2002). It is therefore of utmost importance to understand its vulnerability in terms of population and sectors at risk and its potential for adaptation to climate change. Increased climate variability means additional threats to drought-prone environments and is considered a major crop production risk factor. The impact of climate variability and change on agricultural production is a global concern. However, the impact is particularly important in Bangladesh...

Words: 7382 - Pages: 30